IEA warns Hormuz LNG disruption may tighten global gas supply this winter

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that global natural gas supplies could tighten further during the 2026–27 winter heating season as disruption to liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments through the Strait of Hormuz continues.

The Times of India reported that the IEA described the disruption as an unprecedented supply shock. According to the report, LNG loadings from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates fell by 60 billion cubic metres (bcm) year-on-year between March and October 2026. The Times of India, citing news agency ANI, said this contributed to a 5 per cent, or 20 bcm, fall in global LNG output, because additional supplies from new projects only partly offset reduced deliveries from the Persian Gulf.

The Qatar Tribune carried an ANI report that quoted the IEA as saying: "The disruption of LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz creates unprecedented uncertainty for the global LNG market ahead of the 2026/27 winter". The report added that "the supply shock looks set to keep imposing tighter market conditions during the northern hemisphere winter, even as supply from new liquefaction plants around the globe continues to grow."

With transit through the Strait of Hormuz still severely restricted in late October, the IEA estimated that global LNG supply could decline by 10–25 bcm year-on-year between November and March, depending on how quickly shipments recover, according to BW Businessworld.

The Times of India and the Qatar Tribune both reported that the IEA sees two scenarios. If the Strait begins progressively reopening in January 2027, global LNG supply could fall by around 9 bcm, or 3 per cent, year-on-year during the winter period. If it stays closed until the end of March 2027, the decline could reach around 20 bcm, or 7 per cent. BW Businessworld reported the same two scenarios.

North American exporters are expected to drive LNG supply growth this winter, supported by expanding projects in the United States, Canada and Mexico, the Times of India reported. It said additional volumes are expected from new facilities in West Africa and Australia. According to the Qatar Tribune, the IEA projects that new LNG projects will add around 18 bcm of supply during the winter and existing facilities another 3 bcm, taking incremental supply from outside the Persian Gulf to over 20 bcm. BW Businessworld put the combined figure at slightly over 20 bcm year-on-year.

The IEA said this extra supply would not close the gap. The report said: "In total, new and legacy projects outside the Persian Gulf could contribute slightly over 20 bcm of incremental supply y-o-y in the winter period. Despite the strong growth, this extra supply would remain insufficient to compensate for the lost volumes from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates," as quoted by the Qatar Tribune.

BW Businessworld reported that the IEA also pointed to limits on pipeline gas as an alternative. Long-distance pipelines generally operate close to their designed capacity, which leaves little room to raise deliveries and make up for reduced LNG availability.

The Qatar Tribune reported that the IEA cautioned that unplanned outages and delays in ramping up production at new LNG projects could pose additional downside risks to global supplies while the Middle East disruption continues.