Mogadishu Cannot Stop Israel in Hargeisa: A Government at Odds With Its Own States

Israel's first ambassador to Somaliland, Michael Lotem, has presented credentials in Hargeisa, Israel's Foreign Ministry announced on 1 November 2026. Somalia's federal government in Mogadishu calls the recognition unlawful, and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud told Sky News this week that "Israel wants the Red Sea." The harder question is what Mogadishu can do about it.

A government at odds with its own states

On 15 October, the federal electoral commission set parliamentary elections for 15 April 2027 and a presidential vote for 15 May 2027. Mohamud rejected calls for talks with the opposition. Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni accused him on 25 October of abandoning consensus-based elections, and on 31 October called for an interim council and for Mohamud to resign. Deni's allegations of federal interference in member states have not been independently verified.

The rift is not only about elections. In March 2026, South West State suspended all cooperation with Mogadishu, the third state after Puntland and Jubaland to cut ties, according to ACLED. Federal forces seized the South West capital, Baidoa, that month, and in August federal troops clashed there with fighters loyal to a former regional president, in what residents called the fiercest fighting since March (Reuters). ACLED also reports that al-Shabaab regained control of more than 60 towns and villages over the past year.

The fighting continued into October. Forces aligned with former South West president Laftagareen took five towns in the Bay region between 8 and 16 October, according to the Critical Threats Project, and Mogadishu launched a counteroffensive. On 26 October al-Shabaab ambushed the federal convoy on the Mogadishu-Baidoa road near Buurhakaba. Two soldiers told Reuters that dozens of troops were killed, one saying he helped carry 40 dead and more than 100 wounded to Mogadishu hospitals. The Defence Ministry said about 75 militants were killed and only that some army vehicles were damaged. President Mohamud cancelled a trip to Moscow afterwards.

A federal government that is fighting for control inside its own federation, while losing ground to al-Shabaab, has little leverage left for a diplomatic fight over Somaliland.

Losing its security partners

The African Union mission that replaced ATMIS in 2025, AUSSOM, faces persistent funding shortages. Uganda, which first sent troops to Somalia in 2007, has now begun pulling out. A Kenya-registered aircraft carried 109 Ugandan soldiers out of Mogadishu on 30 October, and President Yoweri Museveni told Mohamud he would withdraw part of his force before 15 November, rebuffing Mohamud's appeal during a one-day visit to Uganda on 26 October, according to the Somali Guardian. Reports differ on the timing of the cut in United Nations logistical support to the mission, but both point to a drawdown.

The Gulf is not united on this

For Gulf readers, the divisions among Gulf states matter as much as the Israel-Turkey contest. Qatar joined 21 Arab, Islamic and African states in a joint statement rejecting Israel's recognition. The UAE, which has had a military facility at Berbera since a 2017 agreement, did not sign the Arab League-OIC statement, according to the Arab Center Washington DC, though it issued a separate statement with the African Union backing Somalia's territorial integrity. On 12 January 2026 Somalia's cabinet cancelled all agreements with the UAE, including port and security deals, and Mogadishu has accused Abu Dhabi of influencing Israel's decision. The UAE has not endorsed that accusation.

What to watch

• Whether Mogadishu reaches an election deal with Puntland, Jubaland and South West before April 2027.
• Whether the Ugandan withdrawal deepens and who fills the gap.
• Whether Israel's embassy and any security presence in Somaliland materialise. Somaliland officials have neither ruled out nor confirmed a military base.
• Whether any second state follows Israel in recognising Somaliland.

Sources: Al Jazeera, The Media Line and i24NEWS (1 Nov 2026); Reuters (26 Dec 2025, 17 Aug 2026); Middle East Eye (12 Jan 2026); Arab Center Washington DC (26 Feb 2026); Qatar MOFA joint statement; ACLED (27 Mar 2026); Critical Threats Project (29 Oct 2026); Somali Guardian (17, 27, 31 Oct 2026); Garowe Online (30 Oct 2026); Hiiraan Online (25 Oct 2026); Dawan Africa (31 Oct 2026).