Turkey's presidential adviser says 2028 election likely held earlier, in March or April

Turkey will probably hold its next presidential and parliamentary elections in March or April 2028 rather than in May as scheduled, Mehmet Ucum, chief adviser to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said, in remarks reported by Reuters on Thursday.

The timing matters because of term limits. Turkey's constitution limits a president to two terms. It makes an exception if parliament decides to hold early elections during the president's second term, in which case the sitting president may stand again. Even a vote moved forward by only a few weeks, if called by parliament, could therefore let Erdogan seek another term.

A parliamentary decision to bring elections forward needs a three-fifths majority, or 360 votes in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly. The governing alliance of Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its nationalist partner, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), does not hold that many seats on its own. It would need support from other parties.

Erdogan, 72, served as prime minister from 2003 to 2014 and has been president since 2014. A 2017 referendum replaced Turkey's parliamentary system with an executive presidency. He won the 2018 election under the new system and was re-elected in a May 2023 runoff against opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu. His supporters argue that his first term under the old system does not count toward the limit. Opposition parties say his current term is his last.

The main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) named Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu as its presidential candidate. Imamoglu was detained in March 2025 on corruption charges, which he denies, and the arrest set off the largest street protests in Turkey in more than a decade.

The question of who leads Ankara after 2028 matters to Qatar. Doha and Ankara have one of the closest partnerships in the region. They have held annual meetings of the Qatar-Turkey Supreme Strategic Committee since 2015, Turkey maintains a military base in Qatar, and Qatari investment in Turkish banking, real estate and other sectors has grown during Erdogan's time in office.