Gulf Oil Export Losses Far Smaller Than Initially Feared, Traders Say

Gulf oil export losses from recent Strait of Hormuz tensions are proving far smaller than traders and shippers first feared, according to revised estimates that cut the projected disruption from as much as 14 million barrels per day to between 2 and 6 million. Early assessments had assumed a near-total halt to crude moving through the waterway, the world's most important oil chokepoint, through which a large share of Gulf exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar normally passes. In practice, traders and shippers say alternative logistics kept much of that crude flowing. Cargoes were rerouted, loading schedules adjusted and pipeline capacity that bypasses the strait absorbed part of the volume, blunting the impact on global supply. The downward revision has eased fears of a sharp price spike and a prolonged shortfall, though shippers caution that insurance costs and freight rates remain elevated while the security situation stays unsettled. For Qatar, whose liquefied natural gas and condensate exports also transit Hormuz, the resilience of regional shipping routes is closely watched, as any sustained closure would carry significant consequences for Gulf energy revenues.