Turkish Markets Hit Circuit Breaker After Ankara Court Annuls Opposition Party Congress

An Ankara appeals court on Thursday annulled the Republican People's Party's 2023 congress, removing chairman Özgür Özel and ordering former leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu reinstated. Borsa Istanbul's benchmark index fell roughly 6 per cent and triggered a marketwide circuit breaker, the lira weakened to 45.61 per US dollar, and the central bank intervened in foreign-exchange markets to stabilise the currency.

The ruling

The court cited "irregularities" in the November 2023 CHP congress that had elevated Özel over Kılıçdaroğlu, who led the party for thirteen years and lost the 2023 presidential race against President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The decision orders the reinstatement of the pre-2023 administration.

Several CHP organisations had already been reorganised under judicial oversight in recent months, including the Istanbul provincial branch, where Gürsel Tekin was appointed by court order as trustee in September. Thursday's ruling extends similar oversight to the national leadership.

CHP deputy parliamentary group chair Ali Mahir Başarır called the decision "an attempted coup carried out through the judiciary" and "a blow against the will of 86 million people." Kılıçdaroğlu, for his part, said the moment was "an opportunity to unite."

The market reaction

The BIST 100 closed roughly 6 per cent lower on Thursday after triggering Borsa Istanbul's marketwide circuit breaker. The lira fell to 45.6133 per US dollar — a fresh weak point — and Turkey's five-year sovereign credit-default swap spread widened to around 261 basis points, according to traders cited by Reuters and Bloomberg.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey reportedly sold billions of dollars during the session to stabilise the lira, drawing on reserves that the technocratic team of Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek and Governor Fatih Karahan has been rebuilding since assuming control of economic policy in 2023.

David Austerweil of Van Eck Associates told Bloomberg the central bank "still has enough reserves to maintain the current policy framework," but warned that "the buffer is wearing thin." Guillaume Tresca of Generali Asset Management said Turkey is now in "a trickier position than before."

The political calendar

The ruling lands while Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu — the CHP's officially nominated candidate for the 2028 presidential election — remains imprisoned since March 2025 on charges he denies. With Mansur Yavaş, the Ankara mayor and another presumed CHP heavyweight, also under investigation, the party now faces both a contested leadership and the absence of its leading challenger. President Erdoğan's current term technically runs to 2028, though Turkish politics has periodically debated whether snap elections could come earlier.

The Doha read

Qatar's economic relationship with Turkey is structural and over a decade in the making. Qatar Investment Authority and Qatari banking interests hold significant stakes in Turkish lenders, real estate, and infrastructure; in 2020 Qatar acquired roughly 10 per cent of Borsa Istanbul itself. Qatari-Turkish defence cooperation has deepened since the 2017 Gulf diplomatic crisis, when Ankara was among Doha's earliest backers, and Turkish contractors remain heavily embedded in Qatari construction and infrastructure projects.

That exposure makes Thursday's session relevant for Doha well beyond geopolitics. Sustained widening in Turkish credit spreads or further weakness in the lira affects the mark-to-market value of Qatari holdings and the operating environment for Turkish-Qatari joint ventures. The Şimşek-Karahan team retains political backing and adequate reserves to defend the currency; the political risk premium that has periodically dogged Turkish assets, however, has acquired a new chapter — and one Doha will be watching closely.