Analysts warn US-Iran war could resume despite Democratic midterm win

Analysts are warning that the United States and Iran are heading toward renewed war, even as hopes grow that the Democrats' decisive midterm election victory will bring the conflict to an end. CNBC reported that the Democrats plan to use their majorities in both chambers of Congress to pass a war powers resolution demanding that President Donald Trump end the war, but they are not sworn in until January.

Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told investors in a note on Friday: "Throughout the week, we were struck by the divergence between deepening escalation concerns in the Gulf and the headline-driven off-ramp optimism of market participants thousands of miles away." Bob McNally, president of the consulting group Rapidan Energy, told CNBC that the escalation dynamic remains in place so long as the core difference between Washington and Tehran over Iran's nuclear capabilities persists. Amos Hochstein, a former energy advisor to President Joe Biden, said the risk of war is still alive, especially since Trump no longer faces future elections.

What we know

• CNBC reported that crude oil prices fell more than 16% over the last five trading days after U.S. Vice President JD Vance publicly blamed the Republicans' loss on the war.
• CNBC reported that Trump told reporters on Thursday he will make a decision soon on whether to attack Iran again, saying in the Oval Office: "I would rather not destroy the rest of the country if possible but maybe I'll have to."
• According to CNBC, Rapidan Energy sees an 80% chance that fighting will resume as diplomacy stalls, and a third carrier strike group is en route to the region.
• CNBC reported, citing maritime security agencies, that several oil tankers have come under attack near Oman since the election, killing one seafarer.
• Qatar's state news agency said Trump discussed diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions in the region with the emir of Qatar during a Friday phone call, CNBC reported.
• CNBC reported that an unnamed senior Iranian official told Reuters on Thursday that Tehran sent a nuclear proposal to the U.S. through Qatar.

What we don't know yet

• Whether Trump will order new strikes on Iran: CNBC quotes him as saying "You'll know soon enough."
• Whether the Iranian state media reports of explosions on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz and in the port of Jask are accurate, since CNBC said it could not independently confirm them.
• Whether a war powers resolution can take effect: CNBC reported that Congress is unlikely to pass one until Democrats take control in January and that Trump can veto it.
• How Washington has responded to the proposal Tehran reportedly sent through Qatar, which CNBC's report does not say.