Oil Prices Fall 3% as Draft Proposal to End US-Iran War Circulates

Oil prices slumped 3% in Asian trade on Monday as a draft proposal on a potential end to the US-Iran war was circulated after Iranian negotiators left Qatar. An official briefed on the talks told Reuters, according to Oilprice.com, that the draft is being circulated for a potential follow-up meeting. The official did not say what the proposal contains.

Key numbers

• 3% — fall in oil prices in Asian trade on Monday, per Oilprice.com
• $108.61 — Brent crude per barrel early on Monday, down 4.25% on the day, per Oilprice.com
• $99.62 — WTI crude per barrel early on Monday, down 4.32%, per Oilprice.com
• $104.96 — Brent crude per barrel at 12:24 p.m. EST (1724 GMT), down $8.47 or 7.47%, per Reuters in a report carried by Marine News Magazine
• $96.62 — WTI crude at the same time, down $7.50 or 7.2%, per Reuters via Marine News Magazine
• $140 — level Goldman Sachs said Brent could reach in 2027 if Gulf oil output stays 3.5 million barrels per day below its 2025 average, per Marine News Magazine and Türkiye Today

Outlets reported different price levels for the same session. Türkiye Today put January 2027 Brent at $108.8 and December 2026 WTI at $99.7 at 1:34 p.m. GMT, a fall of more than 4%. Udaipur Kiran reported Brent down over 6% to around $105.55 and WTI down 7.4% to $96.46.

Türkiye Today said the decline followed three days of discussions involving Iranian and Qatari officials. It reported that Iranian negotiators left Doha on Sunday, but that an official familiar with the talks told Reuters their departure did not signal a breakdown and a follow-up meeting remains possible. Türkiye Today also cited Axios as reporting that US Vice President JD Vance had sent a letter to Iranian national security chief Mohsen Rezaei about possible new negotiations.

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said, as quoted by Reuters via Oilprice.com, that Tehran's demands had been stated clearly. He said no final agreement could be started, and the Strait of Hormuz could not be reopened or secured, unless the US naval blockade ends. Oilprice.com reported that Iran said over the weekend the strait could reopen within two days if its demands are met, and that US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's September proposal. Marine News Magazine reported that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei had granted the government "certain authorities" for the talks. Udaipur Kiran quoted Trump as saying Iran wants to "make a deal and that could happen".

Analysts urged caution. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said, as quoted by Reuters via Oilprice.com: “Lingering hopes of some form of diplomatic progress, combined with the absence of any meaningful military escalation over the weekend, have taken some of the immediate heat out of prices for now”. Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov said, per Reuters, that scepticism is warranted after many false dawns in recent months. Oilprice.com reported that ING's strategists said "the market may have to hold its breath until the end of the week". Marine News Magazine and Türkiye Today both reported that Brent ended October at its highest in six months on fears of escalation after Tuesday's US midterm elections.

Background

Qatar Standard reported in September that China had reportedly pressured Iran to rein in Houthi attacks along the Red Sea after a request from Saudi Arabia. In that earlier report, US crude futures fell below $100 per barrel, with Brent at 104.9 and West Texas Intermediate at 103.4 as of September 17, 2026.