Ethiopia expels Egyptian diplomat over Nile dam dispute; Cairo retaliates

Ethiopia ordered an Egyptian diplomat out of the country within 48 hours on 1 October, and Cairo expelled an Ethiopian embassy counsellor the same day, according to an opinion column on the Nile dam dispute. The piece, by Kator Ifyalem, was published by Opinion Nigeria.

Opinion Nigeria described Egypt's move as a mirror-image expulsion. It said neither side publicly named a specific violation, and it presented the dispute over the river as the underlying cause.

The column said Ethiopia inaugurated the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on 9 September 2025 and that the dam is designed to generate 5,150 megawatts. According to Opinion Nigeria, Cairo and Khartoum want a legally binding agreement on how the dam is filled and operated, while Addis Ababa insists on guidelines. It listed the sticking points as the annual refilling, how much water Ethiopia releases downstream in a multi-year drought, and how future disputes are settled.

Opinion Nigeria reported that Irrigation Minister Hani Sewilam said in September that Egyptian per capita water availability has fallen to about 472 cubic metres a year, below the 500 cubic metre line used to define absolute scarcity. It said he put annual renewable supply at roughly 56.8 billion cubic metres against a need of about 123 billion.

The column also recounted competing accounts of the 2025 flood season. In early October 2025, it said, Egypt accused Ethiopia of reckless management and claimed abrupt releases produced a "man-made flood" that hit farmland in Sudan and the Nile Delta. Ethiopia replied that the dam had prevented something worse and pointed to other causes, including White Nile inflows, shifting rainfall and conflict-damaged infrastructure, Opinion Nigeria said.

On other 2026 developments, Opinion Nigeria said President Trump wrote to President Sisi in January offering to restart US mediation, and that Egypt and Sudan both welcomed the offer. No settlement followed, it said. In August, it added, Ethiopia's water and energy minister confirmed plans for three more hydropower dams on the Blue Nile system: Karadobi, Mandaya and Beko Abo. On 29 September, the column said, Egypt's foreign minister told a meeting chaired by President Sisi that Cairo would not accept any new dams or a repeat of what happened with the current one.

The column linked the expulsions to a wider security dispute. It said Ethiopia's army chief accused Sudan, Egypt and other external powers of backing the forces fighting his troops, and that Egypt rejected the claim. On the same day as the move against Egypt, Opinion Nigeria said, Ethiopia expelled ten Eritrean diplomats and closed its embassy in Asmara, and Eritrea cut diplomatic ties in response.

Opinion Nigeria also reported that on 4 October President Sisi hosted the Eritrean and Somali presidents and Sudan's army commander at New Alamein. It said their joint declaration backed international law on transboundary rivers, opposed unilateral action affecting Egyptian and Sudanese water supplies, and asserted that Red Sea governance belongs to coastal states.

The account comes from a single opinion column. Neither government's statement on the expulsions was quoted in it.

Background

Qatar Standard reported in September that Egypt had issued a formal warning to Ethiopia over plans to build three additional dams on the Nile. Cairo's government said any new construction without a binding agreement on water allocation would be treated as a direct threat to Egyptian national security.

The same report said Ethiopia completed the dam's final filling in 2023 after more than a decade of construction. It added that Addis Ababa has resisted Egyptian and Sudanese demands for a legally binding operational framework covering drought years and dam releases, and maintains its right to develop the Blue Nile's resources.