Opposition Coalition Formed as Ethiopia Faces Renewed Tigray Conflict Threat

Opposition armed groups in Ethiopia, including the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), formed a military alliance on September 20 aimed at challenging the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, according to reports. The move comes amid renewed tension in Tigray and raises fears of a fresh war in the Horn of Africa.

The TPLF and the OLA have allied before. In November 2021, at the height of the Tigray war, the two groups joined seven smaller factions in Washington to form the United Front of Ethiopian Federalist and Confederalist Forces. That coalition aimed to remove Abiy by force or through negotiations. It fell apart after the African Union-brokered Pretoria agreement between the federal government and the TPLF ended the fighting in November 2022.

The two-year Tigray war was one of the deadliest conflicts of the century. Some researchers and African Union mediators estimate that up to 600,000 people died from fighting, famine, and the lack of medical care. The federal government used armed drones in the war, including Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2s, and rights groups documented strikes on civilians.

The Pretoria deal left key issues unresolved. These included the status of contested Western Tigray, the return of displaced people, and the presence of Eritrean troops. Tigray's own politics have since split. In 2025 a TPLF faction pushed Getachew Reda out as head of the Tigray Interim Administration, and Ethiopia's electoral board deregistered the party. The OLA, meanwhile, has kept up its insurgency in Oromia after peace talks with Addis Ababa in Tanzania in 2023 collapsed without a deal.

Relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara have also worsened since Abiy began calling for Ethiopian access to the Red Sea in 2023. Analysts warn that a new internal war could draw in neighbouring states.

Gulf states have a direct interest in this. The Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab carry a large share of the energy and trade that flows between the Gulf, Europe, and Asia. Gulf capitals have also invested heavily in Ethiopia and the wider Horn of Africa. Doha has consistently called for dialogue and political settlements to regional conflicts. It has warned that instability on the African side of the Red Sea threatens the security of the whole region.