Ethiopia's conflict spreads beyond Tigray to neighboring regions

Ethiopia's armed conflict has spread well beyond the northern region of Tigray and now involves fighting in neighbouring regions, according to a new Al Jazeera analysis published on 2 October 2026 that traces the geographic escalation in maps and charts.

The war in Tigray began in November 2020, when federal forces and allied militias fought the Tigray People's Liberation Front. An African Union-brokered agreement signed in Pretoria on 2 November 2022 formally ended that war, which killed a very large number of people and displaced millions. Estimates of the death toll vary widely, and no single figure is agreed.

The Pretoria deal did not bring lasting calm to the country. Since 2023, Fano, an Amhara militia movement, has fought federal forces across the Amhara region, and the government declared a state of emergency there in August 2023. In Oromia, the Oromo Liberation Army has waged a long insurgency against the state. Tensions have also persisted inside Tigray, where the TPLF has split into rival factions and the interim administration has been contested. Relations between Addis Ababa and neighbouring Eritrea have also been strained, partly over Ethiopia's stated ambition to gain access to the Red Sea.

The expansion of fighting across several regions raises the risk for civilians, aid access and the fragile federal arrangement that holds Africa's second most populous country together.

The Horn of Africa matters to the Gulf. The Red Sea corridor carries shipping that Gulf states depend on, and Gulf governments have long invested in and mediated across the region. Qatar, for example, mediated the border dispute between Djibouti and Eritrea and deployed observers there until 2017. Qatar Airways also connects Doha with Addis Ababa. Instability in Ethiopia therefore has implications for regional security and trade well beyond its borders.