US Military Cooperation with Ethiopia Driven by Egypt-China Rapprochement

The United States and Ethiopia signed a defense agreement in Washington on August 21 during a visit by an Ethiopian military delegation, a step that analysts quoted by Asharq Al-Awsat link to Egypt's deepening ties with China. Both governments described the accord as a strategic framework aimed at strengthening military and security cooperation.

The agreement follows a broader US-Ethiopian dialogue launched in May covering economics, trade, investment, defense and security. The defense track advanced within three months, a pace that Ethiopian lawmaker Mohammed Al-Arusi said reflects long-term considerations in Washington rather than temporary positioning.

The timing has drawn attention in Cairo. Chinese President Xi Jinping visited the Egyptian capital this week, where the two sides signed agreements and memorandums of understanding in several fields. The visit coincided with joint Egyptian-Chinese air exercises. Egypt and China have maintained a comprehensive strategic partnership for more than a decade, and Beijing has also cultivated close ties with Addis Ababa, which it describes as an all-weather strategic partner.

Raafat Mahmoud, head of the African affairs research unit at the Egyptian Cabinet's Information and Decision Support Center, said Washington is seeking to rebuild ties with Addis Ababa and to rebuild its position in a region where the balance of power is changing. He said the United States views the Horn of Africa through the lens of Red Sea security and countering Chinese and Russian influence.

Not every observer sees a decisive shift. Adolfo Franco, a US Republican and strategic affairs expert, cautioned that the agreement lacks formally binding treaties and direct financial funding. Henry Ensher, a former US diplomat, said Washington wants a security partner in the Horn and that Ethiopia is the best option given its capabilities, but added that Egypt remains the more important partner for the United States, making an open confrontation between Washington and Cairo unlikely.

For the Gulf, the competition matters because the Horn of Africa sits on the Red Sea corridor that carries Gulf energy exports toward the Suez Canal and Europe. Qatar has a long record of mediation in the Horn, and Gulf capitals have watched the Egypt-Ethiopia rivalry closely given the unresolved dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile. A US tilt toward Addis Ababa, set against Cairo's outreach to Beijing, adds another layer to a region where Gulf states have sought stability along their western maritime flank.